2.2.1 EXISTING SERVICE AREA GROWTH

BC&A reviewed the WFRC TAZ projections for the City of West Jordan and used the existing population estimates and growth rates for each TAZ within the City to help define the rate of growth for the existing service area through the year 2050. The WFRC does not have population projection beyond the year 2050, so the rate of growth shown through 2060 is extrapolated at the 2050 rate for the existing service area.

The WFRC TAZ projections show a slow and fairly steady growth rate of 0.6% over the next 40 years. Unfortunately, this does not appear to be representative of recent observed growth trends. Over the past 15 years, the West Jordan population has grown at approximately 1.8 %. To ensure that the water system is ready and available when needed, BC&A and City staff identified a slightly higher planning growth rate for population projections. The recommended growth rate follows the higher historic growth rate of 1.8% over the next few years, and then gradually slows to match the total growth shown in the TAZ projections at the 40-year mark. This allows the projections to match regional expectations in the long-term while better reflecting observed trends in the short-term.

Table 2-1 and Figure 2-2 identify the population projections for the City service area.

Table 2-1
Population Projections for City of West Jordan

	West Jordan City TAZ Projection	West Jordan Service Area - TAZ Projection	Average Growth Rate	West Jordan Service Area - Accelerated Projection	Accelerated Growth Rate
2020	112,212	100,428		100,428
2025	116,228	104,374	0.77%	107,677	1.40%
2030	119,928	108,023	0.69%	113,617	1.08%
2035	123,948	112,026	0.73%	118,130	0.78%
2040	126,873	114,898	0.51%	121,435	0.55%
2045	129,890	117,820	0.50%	123,792	0.39%
2050	133,208	120,970	0.53%	125,441	0.26%
2055	136,554	124,164	0.52%	126,579	0.18%
2060	139,899	127,357	0.51%	127,357	0.12%

 

Figure 2-2
Residential Population