There are several methods that can be used to estimate future water demand. This study developed demand projections using equivalent residential connections (ERCs). An ERC is defined as the equivalent water demand for the average residential water connection. The methodology of this approach can be summarized as follows:
1. Define the service area.
2. Project residential populations for the service area based on the City's land use map and allowable densities for the designated land use types.
3. Following the State guidelines to establish use per ERC, estimate the contribution of equivalent residential connections based on a statistical analysis of existing levels of development and historic water use. This analysis is then used to confirm that use of the sizing requirements provided by the State are acceptable for future planning purposes.
4. Convert projections of equivalent residential connections to water demands based the State's minimum sizing requirements.
5. Adjust projected demands as necessary to account for conservation trends and goals Each step of this process is summarized in the sections below.