(A) A Multi-year Forecasting Advisory Committee (Committee) shall be created with seven members. The Committee shall include the City Economist and the city Budget Officer from the Department of Finance and Management, one representative from the city other than employees of the Department of Finance and Management, one staff member of the Office of Council Services, one person from the University of New Mexico and two representatives of private business or other governmental agencies. All members of the Committee should be knowledgeable in forecasting governmental revenues and expenditures. The Council staff representative shall be recommended by the President of the Council and the Mayor shall appoint the members of the Committee with the consent of the Council.
(1) The Committee shall meet at least once prior to the finalization of each forecast and shall be given adequate opportunity to understand the assumptions of the forecasts and make suggestions for modifications and improvements.
(2) The first priority of the Committee is to advise the Mayor and the Council on multi-year forecasting for the General Fund and related funds. The broader objective of the Committee is to evaluate and make recommendations on long-range forecasting for all major expenditure areas. The intent being to improve the usefulness, credibility and accuracy of forecasting as a planning tool.
(3) A thorough explanation of the gross receipts tax revenue projection approach including: the factors used to predict the tax revenues, the mathematical relationship between changes in these factors and the tax revenues, predictions for future values of these factors, and explanations of how these predictions were determined shall be provided to the Committee in written form as part of each forecast.
(4) The Committee, in compliance with the Revised Ordinances of the City of Albuquerque shall at least annually submit a written report of its activities and any recommendations to the Mayor and the Council.
(5) The Department of Finance and Management shall provide staff support for the Committee.
(B) A multi-year forecast shall be provided to the City Council. The forecast shall include a detailed five-year estimate of the operating needs and revenues of the General Fund and funds which are dependent on the General Fund. The five-years will include an estimate of the current year.
(1) The forecast for each fund shall include the following:
(a) Operating cost estimates of capital projects expected to come on line within the time frame of the forecast.
(b) Inflation factors.
(c) Optimistic, pessimistic and control scenarios with regard to the revenue forecasts.
(d) Updated fund balances.
(e) Growth factors.
(f) Estimates of reversions, reappropriated encumbrances and reserves.
(g) Recurring and non-recurring revenues and expenditures.
(h) Comparison of forecasted versus actual revenues by revenue source and forecasted expenditures versus actual expenditures over the past five years.
(i) The history of actual expenditures and revenues over the past three years.
(2) The multi-year forecast shall be presented to the Council in December of each year as part of the series of pre-budget meetings required by the Administration Ordinance. In addition, the forecast shall be forwarded to the Council along with the Mayor's Budget Proposal on April 1 of each year. The December presentation shall include final year end actual expenditures and revenues from the previous fiscal year. The April forecast shall include updated current year estimates and expenditures and revenues as reflected in the Mayor's Proposed Budget. The forecast shall be run a third time at the discretion of the Director of the Finance and Management Department, after the adoption of the annual budget if in the opinion of the Director there have been significant changes compared to the Mayor's Proposed Budget.
(Res. 140-1990, approved 10-25-90)