Table 2:2 of this section provides a summary of an aggressive twenty five (25) year absorption scenario, including a five (5) year breakdown of residential and commercial absorption. This service plan contemplates the development of approximately fifty thousand (50,000) residential units and one thousand two hundred twenty (1,220) acres of commercial development (an estimated 15,942,960 square feet of developed commercial improvements) over a twenty five (25) year period.
Assuming an aggressive twenty five (25) year build-out schedule for the fifty thousand (50,000) residential units, it is estimated that residential absorption may occur on five (5) year intervals as follows:
In the first five (5) year period, it is estimated that approximately two thousand six hundred (2,600) residential units and approximately eighty (80) acres of commercial development (1,045,400 square feet of improvements), covering approximately two thousand three hundred (2,300) acres will occur. At the end of the first ten (10) year period, absorption may grow to some sixteen thousand two hundred (16,200) residential units and four hundred ten (410) commercial acres (5,357,800 square feet of improvements), on approximately five thousand four hundred (5,400) acres; after fifteen (15) years approximately twenty nine thousand two hundred (29,200) residential units and seven hundred thirty (730) commercial acres (9,539,600 square feet of improvements) on approximately eight thousand nine hundred (8,900) acres may be built; and thirty nine thousand eight hundred (39,800) residential units and one thousand thirty (1,030) commercial acres (13,460,000 square feet of improvements) on approximately eleven thousand five hundred (11,500) acres may be absorbed in twenty (20) years.
Table 2:2 also forecasts a population based on the total number of units absorbed and utilizing an estimate of roughly 2.5 persons per household within the service plan area. All estimates provided are based upon aggressive growth scenarios for planning purposes within the community and are subject to change based on market conditions.
TABLE 2:2
PROJECTED MAXIMUM ABSORPTION
IN FIVE YEAR INTERVALS
Year | Projected Residential Units Absorbed | Projected Commercial Acreage Absorbed | Projected Population |
Year 5 | 2,600 units | 80 acres | 6,500 |
Year 10 | 16,200 units | 410 acres | 40,500 |
Year 15 | 29,200 units | 730 acres | 73,000 |
Year 20 | 39,800 units | 1,030 acres | 99,500 |
Year 25 | 50,000 units | 1,220 acres | 125,000 |
(Res. 2005-07, 5-4-2005)