(A) City/county comparison. Both the city and county have maintained a steady population growth rate. The table below illustrates the statistics for both jurisdictions from 1940 to 1980.
Historic Population of the City of Bedford and Lawrence County - 1940-1980
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City of Bedford | Lawrence County | ||||
Year | Number | % +/(-) | Number | % +/(-) | City/County Ratio |
Historic Population of the City of Bedford and Lawrence County - 1940-1980
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City of Bedford | Lawrence County | ||||
Year | Number | % +/(-) | Number | % +/(-) | City/County Ratio |
1940 | 12,514 | – | 35,045 | – | 35.7% |
1950 | 12,562 | .4 | 34,346 | 2.0 | 36.6% |
1960 | 13,024 | 3.7 | 36,564 | 6.5 | 35.6% |
1970 | 13,087 | .5 | 38,038 | 4.0 | 34.4% |
1980 | 14,410 | 10.1 | 42,472 | 11.7 | 33.9% |
Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1940 to 1980.
(1) From 1940 to 1980, the city’s population increased 1,896 persons, approximately 15%. The largest recent growth period occurred between 1970 and 1980, when the city grew by 10.0%.
(2) The county, during the same time period, grew just under 12%. Between 1940 and 1950 the county lost population; however, after reaching that low point, each decade has seen an increase.
(3) The city, it is noted, has stayed between 33% and 37% of the entire county population during the last 50 years.
(B) Population projection. Utilizing the previously outlined data, population was projected for the city. The projections were calculated in two ways. Both methods utilized the existing corporate boundaries and did not provide for annexation.
(1) The first method utilized the historic growth of the city as a share of the county. Data was compared to county growth projections for the county prepared by Indiana University in 1978.
(2) The second technique was based solely on the city’s rate of growth since 1940. This method of projection utilizes a well-known mathematical approach called least squares to determine the future rate of growth.
(3) The results of this projection techniques are presented for the city below.
Population Projections - 1980-2000 | ||||
Year | County | City | ||
Population Projections - 1980-2000 | ||||
Year | County | City | ||
1980 | 42,4721 | 14,4101 | 14,4101 | 17,3005 |
1985 | 42,4004 | 14,9693 | 15,3772 | |
1990 | 42,600 | 15,579 | 17,090 | 22,000 |
1995 | 42.500 | 16,246 | 18,793 | |
2000 | 42,100 | 16,694 | 20,506 | |
1 1980 Census of Population and Housing. | ||||
2 Least squares methods. | ||||
3 Percentage share method. | ||||
4 Indiana State Board of Health. | ||||
5 A Comprehensive Community Plan, Bedford, Indiana (1968). | ||||
(a) Both methods used for the city project an increase in population. The percentage share method indicates an increase of just under 2,300 persons over the 20-year period. The least squares method indicates an increase of nearly 6,100 persons. It appears that the percentage share method of projecting is more realistic than the least squares method.
(b) The percentage share method is believed to be more accurate and realistic because it reflects a period of moderate growth of approximately 16%; the slowdown in homebuilding is expected to continue, the national economy is not expected to improve sufficiently to have a drastic effect on the city; and the migration is not expected to increase. Consequently, the majority of the increase will be from within the city. It is anticipated that there will be an overall increase of the city population; however, the percentage share method projects a trend that is very similar to the present trend.
(Res. 17-1984, passed 8-14-84)